As our previous note “Did the Grinch Steal Christmas” (Did the Grinch Steal Christmas? » Synergy Consulting Group (synergyinvllc.com) we discussed despite the poor macro-economic data Black Friday will post solid numbers.” We also discussed that there were massive discounts in addition to hard to resist credit card deals. Now we are waiting for Cyber Monday. Will it be good too?
The National Retail Federation today forecast that holiday spending is expected to reach record levels during November and
December and will grow between 3% and 4% over 2022 to between $957.3 billion and $966.6 billion.
We agree with the NRF and believe that this years’ Thanksgiving and Christmas a.k.a. will be good. NRF indicated that it will be setting new records. That said, historically the holiday season posted some impressive numbers and it’s likely to continue into Christmas. As noted below in the chart the S&P was up 8.1% and there are street talks that the Fed may be cutting rates in March.
While this year-end rally has been strong historically, if you look at the above chart it gets stronger as we head closer to Thanksgiving, next we wait for Cyber Monday numbers into Santa Clause rally. We want to emphasize that NASDAQ was especially weaker relatively to other indices. Heading to Cyber Monday, we look to stocks like Amazon, PDD, and Shopify. I would hold these stocks till near the end of December and take profit. These numbers are widely watched by Wall Street and after, we can reinvest in ourselves in more tech-oriented companies. This could turn out to be the best Christmas ever!
